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Posts Tagged ‘gambling’

An Introduction To NFL Totals

Posted on Jul 22nd, 2010

For the NFL handicapper, understanding the methodology behind NFL totals (also called over/under numbers) is crucial. For those not familiar with NFL totals, its the large number you’ll see accompanying most pointspread betting propositions. For example, the 2009 Superbowl line opened with Pittsburgh a 6 point favorite over Arizona. The total was set at 47. Simply stated, the total allows the better to decide whether the combined score between the two teams will go OVER or UNDER.

NFL totals are a favorite tool of serious sports handicappers. Many are of the opinion that its easier to accurately foretell the *type* of game that will transpire between two teams rather than who will actually win and by how much.

To set the NFL total, a bookmaker looks at the offensive and defensive scoring statistics for the two teams and calculates a number based on points allowed and points scored. If one team had scored 275 points and allowed 350 in their previous sixteen games that’s a total of 625. Divided by 16 and that’s an average of just over 39 points per game. If their opponent had scored 285 and allowed 400 (685) over 16 games that translates to just under 43 points per game. Add the two numbers together, divide by two and you’ve got a base total of 40.5.  Read more...

Profitable Sports Gambling Begins With Discipline

Posted on Jul 17th, 2010

There’s a strange dichotomy between the complexity of high level sports handicapping and the amount of theoretical literature on the subject. While successful sports betting is a complex and difficult pursuit, there’s very little that’s been written on the subject from a serious theoretical angle. For that reason, it can be helpful to delve into the wealth of books available to the serious poker player for insights that can be applied to sports betting.

On one level, this is likely due to the fact that poker”like sports gambling”is a pursuit in which the knowledgeable and skillful practitioner can overcome the theoretical odds against him. To paraphrase the great poker theoretician Bob Caro, there are some professional blackjack players and sports gamblers in addition to professional poker players. There may even be a few professional horse players (though the house edge against the horse player is a hefty 17% or so). In the entire world, however, there is not one professional roulette player.

Basically, this is because that no combination of skill, strategy or money management can negate the house edge in roulette and many other casino games. While Caro likes to stress the importance of the decisions that a poker player makes to his long term profitability, in roulette player decisions simply don’t matter over the long haul. Red or black, even or odd, the house edge remains the same.  Read more...

Poker Legend Stu Ungar Remembered

Posted on May 19th, 2010

One of the cruel ironies of human existence is that bountiful gifts are often given to those who cannot handle them. Beauty and money come immediately to mind, but talent in a particular discipline is often bestowed upon those who cannot maximize it to its greatest potential. Still others are unwittingly destroyed by some trait or characteristic that makes them exceptional. That’s what makes an athlete like Michael Jordan so exceptional-seldom are awesome talent, desire, discipline and dedication found in the same package in such prodigious abundance. The mass of humanity often reaps the benefits of their talents despite their external flaws. Such was the case with poker great Stu Ungar, who was found dead in his room at the Oasis Motel in Las Vegas on November 22,’98.  Read more...

The Basics Of The Kentucky Derby for Horse Racing Beginners

Posted on Apr 9th, 2010

The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on the first Saturday in May, and its a race that many horse racing novices like to follow. Along with the Breeders’ Cup and the other ‘Triple Crown’ races, the Derby attracts the most mainstream attention. Understanding the intricacies of horse racing is a very involved study.

While understanding and predicting horse races is a very complex discipline, here are some basics that can help the amateur understand the Kentucky Derby. Back during the seventies, it was a race dominated by the favorite including three great Triple Crown winners–Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed–and a great horse that came close, Spectacular Bid. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who’ve won the race on one hand with fingers left over. If I was a serious horseplayer, I might not advise you to do this but since I’m just worried about predicting the outcome of this one race Im going to suggest that you forget about the favorite altogether. Not only will you not be flying in the face of recent history, but also it allows you to concentrate on the horses offering greater value.  Read more...

Houston Earns Big Road Win At Cincinnati

Posted on Apr 3rd, 2010

Behind a career day for quarterback Matt Schaub, the Houston Texans erased a 17-14 halftime deficit to score– points in the second half and defeat the host Cincinnati Bengals 28-17. Schaub threw for 342 yards and 4 touchdowns against one interception in the solid road victory. Against a team that had won three straight games in the final seconds, Houston never gave Cincinnati the chance to create any late drama. Cincinnati dropped to 4-2 with the loss while Houston evened their record at 3-3.

Houston took the money as +3′ road underdogs with the outright win, and both teams are now 3-3 on the season against the NFL pointspread. The 45 points just managed to stay UNDER the posted total of 46. The Texans have gone UNDER in 4 of 6 this season while the Bengals evened their NFL totals record at 3-3.

After the victory, Schaub said that his team knew of Houston’s penchant for late game comebacks and that ‘putting them away’ would be a priority:

“Every game went down to the wire for them. Credit goes to them because they were able to find ways to win those games. So it was a matter of putting the game away.”  Read more...

Delhomme Continues To Struggle In Panthers’ Loss To Bills

Posted on Mar 25th, 2010

Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Jake Delhomme is having a season he’d like to forget, and things got even worse on Sunday at home against the Buffalo Bills. Despite dominating the Bills on the stat sheet, Delhomme threw three interceptions that allowed Buffalo to take a 20-9 victory over the struggling Panthers. Delhomme threw for 325 yards, though without any touchdowns. His three picks pushed his total for the year to- which leads the NFL.

Buffalo rewarded NFL pointspread players with the outright victory as +7 road underdogs. The Bills have covered four of their seven games this season, while the Panthers have an awful record against the spread-they’ve only covered once this season for a 1-5 ATS mark.

The Bills’ Terrell Owens was again a non-factor, but gave credit to the defense for earning the victory:

“You can’t really complain about a win. Defensively, those guys are keeping us in ballgames.”

Buffalo defensive end Chris Kelsay commended his team’s confidence on the road:

“Never once on the sidelines was there any doubt that we were going to win the game. Regardless if it’s an ugly win over not, it’s hard to win in this league.”  Read more...

The Basics Of Betting On Sports Futures

Posted on Feb 26th, 2010

Sports betting futures plays are often dismissed by more serious handicappers as poor values by definition. They’re most frequently associated with rank amateurs looking for a big payoff with little risk. For example, a player might be entranced with a +10000 payoff should St. George, Utah be awarded the 2020 Summer Olympic games. While that would definitely be a nice payday, the problem is that the ”true odds” of St. George, Utah hosting the Olympics is well in excess of a million to one. That means that even the huge ’plus number’ offered represents an underlay situation and a poor wagering value.

For the more serious bettor, there’s a number of obvious problems with futures wagers. They require that your wagering ’capital’ be tied up for months. Furthermore, once you’ve placed your bet you’re at the mercy of injuries, suspensions, trades and the other numerous factors that can spell defeat for a sports team. It’s no simple task keeping up with these variables on a day to day basis, and predicting them over a longer term is the province of psychics and not sports handicappers.  Read more...

Minnesota Loses First Game of Season

Posted on Feb 19th, 2010

Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings are undefeated no more. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ used a couple of big plays from their defense in the fourth quarter to break open a close game and defeat the Vikings by a final score of 27-17. Favre put up decent yardage in the loss, throwing for 334 yards but had no touchdowns and an interception. The defending Superbowl Champion Steelers improved to 5-2, while the Vikings are now 6-1.

NFL pointspread players who backed the Steelers as -6 home favorites were rewarded with the cover. Pittsburgh had only covered one of their first six games heading into the contest, and the win improved their record against the number to 2-5. Minnesota dropped to 4-3 against the spread with the setback. The 44 points scored went UNDER the posted total of 46’.

The Steelers largely shut down Minnesota’s rushing game, holding Adrian Peterson to 69 yards. Pittsburgh safety Ryan Clark underscored his team’s dominance against the run:

”That’s the biggest point of the game. You have the best running back in the world and you don’t give it to him. They’re saying they can’t beat us running, and that’s a major statement when you have the guy they have back there.”  Read more...

Carolina Thumps Slumping Tampa Bay

Posted on Feb 16th, 2010

Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Jake Delhomme struggled on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and was fortunate that his running backs bailed him out. Delhomme threw for only 65 yards with two interceptions, but D’Angelo Williams (152 yards) and Jonathan Stewart (110 yards) kept the chains moving as the Panthers won their second straight game defeating the Bucs 28-21. Tampa Bay has now lost ten straight dating back to last season and are 0-6 for the first time since’85. Carolina improved to 2-3 with the victory.

NFL sports bettors were faced with a choice between two teams with dismal ATS records in this game, and those who had the guts to take a 1-3 team as a -3 road favorite were rewarded with the cover. It was Carolina’s first NFL pointspread cover of the season and left them with a 1-4 record against the number. Tampa Bay has covered one of their six games this year.

Delhomme attempted only seven passes in the second half, but the way Williams and Stewart were running there was no reason to put the ball in the air. Williams said that even though Tampa Bay knew what was coming they couldn’t stop the Panthers’ running game:  Read more...

Cincinnati Rips Chicago

Posted on Feb 13th, 2010

Former Chicago Bears running back Cedric Benson got revenge on the team that let him go in the best possible way. Benson amassed 189 yards rushing and led his new team, the Cincinnati Bengals, to a 45-10 rout over the visiting Bears on Sunday. Carson Palmer threw for five touchdowns with no interceptions in the blowout victory. Cincinnati improved to 5-2 with the win while Chicago dropped to 3-3 on the NFL season.

The Bengals also made short work of the NFL pointspread, easily covering as +1′ home underdogs. Cincinnati improved to 4-3 against the number while Chicago evened their ATS mark at 3-3.

A happy Benson described his feelings after the win:

“Everybody knew it was going to be an emotional day. Everybody knew. What a wonderful day and a wonderful thing, to go out there and strut your stuff.”

Despite the evidence to the contrary, Benson downplayed the motive of revenge:

“I continue to be as graceful as I can be. I’m not shoving anything in anybody’s face. Like I say, it wasn’t a revenge day for me. I just wanted to take advantage of the opportunities.”  Read more...

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